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FROM LOVERS TO TERRORISTS AND BEYOND

Written by G. T. Hushion. Posted in Exploring Random

"You can't calculate probabilities with just algebra. The geometry must be taken into account."

Comte George Buffon, Essay on Moral Arithmetic

 

RISK MANAGEMENT: FROM LOVERS TO TERRORISTS AND BEYOND

Successful prediction of the random future is entirely possible as a geometric probability. The gravity bet may be applied to any series of random events. Success critically depends on how the field and COR is defined and measured.

Essentially, each randomly measured field can be loosely understood as a roulette wheel, however uneven and irregular the field's shape may be, even if it is a list. Randomness will automatically and statistically treat it like a "circle" or roulette wheel, with any necessary modification such as if the wheel suddenly had an odd shape or one or more odd colored pockets.

The gravity bet's application in the world of sports, including game action and sports betting, will be mind boggling. In team sports, offering opponents a series of yes/no decisions will set up the gravity bet with dynamics never before considered.

So too, there will be necessary adjustments with actuarial tables and weather predictions.

Predicting the random future will inevitably include personal matters such as health and relationships. This can include predicting a significantly higher probability of meeting the right mate.

The predictable geometric future will allow the recognition and prediction of certain physical or psychological characteristics of a person or group or “type.” Under traditional random theory, these appear simply as random distribution of percentages in the general (or specific) population like the percentages of a roulette wheel. So too, when one particular event randomly occurs and the the geometric finesse is properly applied, the next several random appearances may be geometrically predicted, with an allowance for the relevant percentages, with the flat bet advantage. This is addressed in CRACKING PI CRACKING RANDOM.

Biological and geological applications have been lightly but successfully tested.

Biologically, a report of random biological distributions (various species of grasshoppers in a Central American pasture) have also been tested and predicted with the same .16666 advantage over traditional expectations of random distribution. Genetically, the .16666.... advantage has been found in the DNA of a double helix.

Geologically, an underwater obstruction was predicted and found in a sea floor cable laying operation.

Weather predictions, including earthquakes have yet to be tested. Certainly they hold exciting promise.

The gravity bet also has application to random human psychology and decisions with wide promising application from jury selection to terrorism.

A fascinating study of random human psychology and pi, centered on anti-social behavior, was successfully tested along a 10 mile section of road in California (Rt. 154) outside Santa Barbara. That stretch is a “Daytime Headlights On” section with prominent signs. Until the late 1990’s, before a new enforcement policy was announced in the local paper, it was a state requirement that regular commuters knew wasn’t enforced. Since tourists tend to take the Rt 101 scenic coastal route, the inland route of 154 is mainly used by local commuters. A study of 460 passing vehicles, over a period of several days, gave a remarkable result. The ratio of those who did not follow the social contract and did not turn their lights on ...to those who voluntarily did follow the social contract and turn their lights on was, with near precision, the ratio of 1 to pi. More specifically: 1 to 3.19.... .

The Stock Market also fits into the classification of psychology. As previously noted, a five week study of the "Twelve Most Active Stocks" in the Wall Street Journal was particularly satisfying. The stocks were theoretically bought and sold as often as possible at a particular time and day relative to a previous particular time and day. The gravity bet delivered up a .145 flat bet advantage. The only question was not of the stock's "value" but only if it would predictable go up or down.

The phenomenon of using geometric probability to predict random psychological phenomena appears applicable regardless of whether the field is a circle or line of people! This also means, since a series of random psychological decisions is geometrically predictable, the gravity bet may also apply to otherwise apparently unpredictable political decisions!

Perhaps on battlefields, the geometric finesse may prove shockingly accurate in predicting "random" matters. While geometric probability certainly can't replace hard intelligence, it may obviously be an invaluable tactical and strategic adjunct.

As well, the gravity bet will have application in creating and cracking security codes that incorporate randomness.

Two important areas invite special attention. The first is the distinct possibility of a fundamentally new type of efficient engine which can utilize the geometric finesse and its geometrically probable gravitational advantages with super efficiency.

The second area of interest is a new look at "random" radio emissions from outer space. To date, such emissions are checked for regularity ...and for pi.

The biggest question is whether there is life in other solar systems as intelligent as we are. That question may need to be reformed. Perhaps --by just merely looking for pi (especially with the decimal system)-- we are really asking if there is intelligence out there as dumb as we are. We probably won’t get an answer. But if we are looking for radio signals pulsing pi, perhaps we should also start looking for the more fundamental universal values of relative 1/4 pi, 1/2 pi, 1/6 pi, and the geometric relationships between them, including the .08333 and .16666... and .27777.... advantage!

Equally important is a new examination of pi itself with a unit measurement based on something other than the decimal or binary systems. For example, dropping the zero from the decimal system (using nine figures instead of ten) might deliver a fresh look at both random radio emissions and pi. So too, with mathematical systems based on 3 or 4 or 6 or 9 or 16, etc..

Besides roulette and dice, the gravity bet's application to cards has been well demonstrated with thousand of turnovers in the simple game of "guess the next card." It has also been demonstrated in casinos with the table game of Baccarat. It only awaits more sophisticated development into the more complex games of Bridge, Poker and Blackjack!

The use in actuarial statistics will enormously benefit health insurance and risk management as well as everything random from inventory controls to structural failures, from market analysis to system deliveries. In short, to every aspect of business that is touched by randomness.